MOST of the model data agrees with the colder part of the storm. Snow moves in overnight Sunday and lasts till Noonish Monday before mixing and changing to sleet and freezing rain. Freezing rain and sleet change over sometime Monday evening or overnight into Tuesday.
The Canadian keeps the cold locked in longer, keeps the low south and dumps 12-16 inches region wide. If anything like the Canadian happens, move over Wayne Gretzky, we have another Great One!
The Euro still wants to drive the low pressure into the mountains and swing it over our heads directly.
My take is both models are having issues.
There is some divergence still on the storm track of the main low, with the european STILL driving the low across the mountains at an odd angle and REALLY warming things up. My take is to blend the models and really keep close to my forecast from yesterday.
Most places- Snow Develops near midnight Sunday. Snow lasts till about Noon Monday and then mixes and changes to sleet and then freezing rain by mid afternoon. Ice takes over and lasts till near Midnight Tuesday. Rain ends by Noon Tuesday.
Snowfall totals :Draw a line from Martinsville to Chatham 1-4 inches Southeast of that line. Everywhere else NORTH of that line 3-6 inches. A few spots may get up to 8 inches especially in the Mountains or where some heavier bands set up.
Something to watch would be a thin heavier band setting up somewhere. One run of the NAM model had it along 460 from Blacksburg to Farmville and dumped 6-10 inches really fast. For you NFL fans, if you think of the SnowGlobe game between the Eagles and Lions a few years ago, a 1-3 inch snowfall became 6-9 in a few hours from a band like that. As we get closer to this event, the high resolution models COULD pick up on something like this.
Ice Accumulations: .10 to .25 inches. Some minor power outages likely, but I think we warm just enough before heavier rain gets in PLUS temps push towards freezing quickly where freezing rain and 32 is not as bad as 26 and freezing rain.
Not a bad event and I have some work to do on my winter snowfall totals, so I'll take what I can get.
Our warm up is a bit delayed from this storm but we do get a few nice days over the weekend NEXT week with temps in the 60's.
I think Feb 24th through March 10th or so look cold/ stormy and gives me a shot a verifying my winter snow totals. I'd take that shot rather than having NO shot at all.
No comments:
Post a Comment