1. Well established south trend was CLEAR yesterday. Often, when things trend north we assume the trends STOPS and it simply doesn't. I've seen storms end up 100 miles north of modeled AS the storm unfolds.
2. South trend with the storm does NOT always equal colder air being locked in places. So, while we've trended wetter, doesn't mean more snow-- could be more sleet.
3. Speed. Heaviest stuff is out of here by 1pm, if not sooner. Could be 11. So, again-- we need the flip early. Afternoon snow will be light and fluffy stuff with temps around 15-20
4. Even if we flip, clould physics may not make it "fluffly snow" AKA snow grains and stuff that doesn't build up well.
I had floated a MAP on FB-- didn't make it "official"-- Made a little revision of upping DC to 8-14 and moving LYH to 4-8.
Sleet will be an issue. Marked in Yellow on the map.. IF we can get rid of sleet sooner,could see 10 inches in LYH. I'd say that's a 25% shot we see 10 inches. I'd say 6 inches in LYH seems like a safe call.
Temps in TEENS by mid morning VERY possible.
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| Sleet fest for 460-- :) |
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