I will gladly pay you Tuesday...

For a great Friday and Saturday..

There has been a bunch of chatter on social media and other outlets about a possible event next week on Tuesday/Wednesday Time frame.

I've been on the verge of posting, but once I start my investment time, it can be very taxing going over data with a fine tooth comb to get the best forecast possible. For a blog that peaks at 600 readers when a storm approaches, that's not a wise use of my time. (But you know I do really enjoy it) Maybe a little late season fatigue because we've had so much to track with a Winter Type advisory or warning EVERY month since November. March has been rough with 2 bad forecasts and the March 6 now cast that was less than accurate. It happens. Sundays event unfolded as expected, with super dry air, we went from 48 and rain to 40 and rain snow mix in an hour. The bulk of the storm was frozen, we just got dryslotted. When it filled, we had changed to sleet. Had that been heavier, it would have been a snow/sleet mix.  So, had we pulled 2-3 inches up front then flipped, my forecast would have been good. But, I digress...

Another spring event? Palm Sunday 13 was a historic event, being the largest spring storm in LYH in 40 years. We could literally match or exceed if the trends continue.

The never ending abundance of arctic air makes another charge at us while ANOTHER short wave spins a low in the gulf. As of now, the low stays decentl off show and this being early spring makes it an ideal track for snow from Western NC up the East coast. Now, we are still 5 days out but the data has been consistent and that matters. Here is the Euro ensembles. (Ensembles are more skilled at this point because they run the data OVER AND OVER, which weeds out bias errors from the runs)

This run on the Euro Ensembles shows a 1007 low amping up to 987 in 24 hours, not quite a bomb but getting deeper fast.

Compliments of Wxrisk.. a good follow on FB. 

Now, the model data shows more liquid along 95, but my guess is if something like that pans out, we'd see the 1inch liquid line back to the BR. With that, March 25th sun--etc, it won't be 10-1 ratio snow stuff.

But, as of now-- if we set the bench mark at the "official" 6.5 inches that fell Palm sunday, I'd say we have  25% chance of breaking that next week. 

What to look for:

1. Track of the low-- the close to the coast the more moisture back towards the  Mts. 

2. Amount of cold-- We still need WELL below normal temps for snow. Our average high now is like 62 or so.  

3. Speed and timing of system. Now, last year snow laid just fine on March 25th, but it was nice and cold aloft. Some snow falling before sunrise Tuesday would be ideal in "insulating" the warmth. 

4. Strength of system. If this phases 2 jets, stronger systems tend to hug the coast and we could eventually have sleet and dry slot issues. 

The good thing is we are not HOPING cold gets here right as the snow shows up like March 3 and Sunday this past week. 

As I said, Wxrisk is an excellent mid range forecaster and will update per model run. He is "woofing" which is what he says when models show a "big dog" AKA big storm

Wxsouth-- has had a phenomenal winter. 

Just remember these guys forecast BROAD areas, so look to the for broad ideas, but fine details are better found from your local NWS and Media outlets. 

Sean Sublette from WSET has a nice blog and has already touched on this system 2x.