Thanksgiving Snow Threat...???!!!

For those in social media world, there's been quite a bit of chatter about a possible SNOW event just before Thanksgiving.

The Cold is Coming...

A series of cold shots will be heading back into our area, the first on late Saturday and Sunday will be FRIGID. Temps most areas will struggle to get above freezing Sunday.

The Cold is Leaving...

Because we have no blocking (-NAO) the cold slides out to our east quickly just as another shot approaches from the west. It won't be WARM, but not the bitter cold air we will have Sunday.

The Storm Approaches....

More cold air is zooming in from the west as an upper air low literally moves across the country. Timing is key to when the cold air gets here and how much interaction takes places between the two jetstreams.

Options include:
1. Out to sea with little rain.
2. Up the coast but little or no cold air. (big rains)
3. Cold air arrives a smidge late..(rain ending as snow)
4. Storm is a bit slower and snow threat increases.

My current take:

I'd lean somewhere between options 2-3 where we get a nice rainmaker before the cold that COULD end as a flurries or snow showers, with an outside shot of a coating to an inch. Areas to our west in the Mountains should have their first snow of the winter and ski season will get a nice early season boost with the snowfall and NICE chances to make snow.

Looking forward...

My winter outlook may be on the ropes early. I went extremely low on snow and there is a decent chance we put a dent in that total before December 10th or so. Some higher latitude blocking called EPO and WPO are forcing things colder than most had thought. Most people expected a rather warm November and we should end the month 3-5 degrees colder than normal. This trend will continue through the first 10 days or so in December with perhaps a shot or two of snow in that time frame. (read that as a SHOT or two, not a promise :))

Will also be a challenge to get my +2-3 in December with the first 10 days likely to have a decently low of maybe -3 to -5 for those days.


With the Holiday week coming up, I will update more frequently as this storm and cold unfolds. As of now, a decent rain event seems likely with .5 to maybe 1.25 inches of rain falling that could end as snow in the Lynchburg and Roanoke areas.