I feel obligated to post...Snow threat?

It would be very fitting since I went a warm, dry winter that winter kicks off with an event that completely ruins my winter forecast before both the winter solstice AND meteorological winter. (December 1)

Many of you may have heard a little chatter from various outlets about a storm literally 7-8 days away. Speculation is good, if it's presented as speculation. However, what I fear is blogging has turned into Black Friday shopping where people get earlier and earlier alerts and the public can't gauge the difference between an actual threat a couple days out and just some fun chatter about crazy model outputs.

What are the models showing?

The models are showing some VERY unseasonably cold air moving in out of Canada. At the literally perfect time, a short wave digs in and creates a storm. Now, some model data shows a "Alberta Clipper" type event and other blow it up via "closing off" the upper air low and there is a HUGE event. Some of the data has "fringed" our area with the blow up and others have made it a huge event.

The obligatory snow map from the most extreme run..

6-12 inches in our area, with a lot more just north and east.

What do you think will happen??

This falls under the banner of-- just keep watching. What we know is this: 1. Some colder air is heading in our region for a visit and likely a short wave. My guess is that the cold air won't be as cold as progged and short wave will be much weaker and well north. Hence, the upslope areas well north and west of our area could get a decent upslope snow and some lower lying areas in WELL NORTH of our area could see their first flakes of the year. 

Even if the STRONGER colder air and upper air low cuts of, it is well favored that any extreme event (which  I've stated is unlikely) would happen WELL to our north.