Winter Storm watches in effect EVERYWHERE west of the Blue Ridge. My hunch is if the model data holds serve, they expand it region wide.
There are off hour runs of the GFS and NAM, both are still the crazy snow changover- but timed a bit different. GFS is over to snow much faster-- but the event is faster. NAM waits a while, but last longer. In the end, results are about the same.
If you want a "first guess"
Areas west of the Blue Ridge-- 5-10, high elevations may see 12.
East of the Blue Ridge- 3-6, local spots up to 8.
Going to be some issues-- change over will happen quickly in the NRV and Highlands- and then slide east. If you are out when it changes, roads will get bad QUICKLY. If nothing changes on the model data, it will be ROUGH travelling. Further, While the NAM radar looks impressive, these band have a life of their own, You may see and inch or two and your brother 40 miles away sees 8.
Here are two simulated radar shots from the NAM, (slower with the system model)
Yellow is what you often see under thunderstorms-- and once you get under the yellow, it's likely snow.
First shot is at 7 PM tomorrow and second is 10 PM. Mega band just ROLLS our region.
Per this model- 7 PM-- just getting crushed NRV ROA up and down 81.
And three hours later it rolls through the rest of the area. Snow rates 1-3 inches in that band for 3-5 hours.
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