From Bat Signal engaged

**Euro is on board, not as spectacular as the other models. However, LYH went from about  quarter inch of liquid to almost an inch. Getting the 6-8 inches was a tall order. I'd be thrilled with a 1-2 inch snowfall Thursday**

To Bat out of hell ..

If the Euro jumps on board, you will hear BIG time honking Wednesday AM about snow Thursday.

Will update this when ECMWF comes out.


The Set Up....

Lost in the inches of rain has been a slow, meandering upper air low coming out the southwest. Traditional thought is outside of 3 days, hard to get 2 separate systems back to back that close.

So, a few model runs here and there have been showing the second just sneaking in a bring a rain to snow even and they've been dismissed. As we've moved closer, the southern ULL has held together and is modeled stronger. The temps are initially too warm, but the ULL cools the atmosphere and shows the system going from HEAVY rain to HEAVY snow. Often, if model data shows a cold front pushing in and a switch from rain to snow, they struggle. However, getting a vortmax in the right spot is a GREAT way to get that rapid shift.

Until-- the model data mid and late afternoon shifted more towards a possible snow event and so far ALL the models have come on board with rain developing Thursday and then changing to snow-- and then DUMPING snow for 3-5 hours. In that 3-5 hours a GOOD snowfall could happen in the lines of maybe 3-10 inches. These are tricky events, and with the type of banding some places may only get 1-2 inches and other 8-9.

The cool thing is because of the ULL, MUCH of VA, down to even the coast CAN cash in on some snow.

The pictures..

Here is the 500 mb low-- these are often shown by mets on TV-- these are the upper air energy that help form and enhance storms.

500 MB low, goes negative. (tilts NW to SE, common in stronger storms)--heads off the NC coast, perfect for VA snows.

NAM snow map-- NOT a forecast, but snows potential. Purple is 7-8, RED is 10+