Tuesday Night and Wednesday Snowstorm ideas.

First- Always remember if I saw or show what a model does, it doesn't mean it will happen. It also doesn't mean that is my forecast.  Maybe I was careless with my words about the Euro run Friday and it seemed some people may have ran with this as my forecast. I don't run with one model, I blend some model runs with added knowledge about our local climate and past events. When I make a forecast, it will be clearly marked. I share model data to raise awareness of future events.

This event: As stated, Friday looked like a nice step towards a decent event, we had a backing off  late Friday into Saturday and then last night a step back towards a decent event.

The floor of this event seems to be a coating to an inch for most places.

The ceiling seems to be a 3 to 6 inch snowfall.

Right now,  the best bet is a 1 to 3 inch snowfall for most of my readers (Blacksburg, Danville, Roanoke and Lynchburg. 

Somewhere, right now it seems to be favored east could end up more in that 3 to 6 range.

The basic set up. 

There is a clipper system that has a cold front attached to it. The front slows down and a wave develops on it, enhanced by a strong jet aloft. So, there isn't really a "strong low: or really even any low at this point. If we do get a low developing faster, like the Euro showed on Friday we could end up with a decent event again.

The Euro last night was a little more bullish on the wave..


3 AM

6 AM

9AM

12pm

This is the total precipitation from the last run of the euro. The best enhancement is just east of Lynchburg, but about .25 falls in Lynchburg.  This could move  either way before Wednesday.

That is the progression of the snow as it moves through. It strengthens over our area due to a strong jet over head. Basically, when the air aloft is moving that fast, our air rises to replace what is moving away. Lift = wrings out our moisture into cold arctic air.

Not in this mapthe strong winds from the Jet stream (Lets say from 15k to 30k feet, flow is out of the southwest.

Summary:

At this point, Most areas are on target to see a 1-3 inch snow fall.
Some places, as show on that map, could see a bit more like 3 to 6. As of now, best locations may be east of Lynchburg but that will likely change a bit as get closer.

I will tweet out updates throughout the day and likley have a blog updated in the morning. Share this write up with your friends..