Weekend Ice possible

We currently have a signficant amount of cold air NEAR us, but the problem is there is nothing to hold it in place. So, we get a few colder days, brief warm up and then back to cold.

Big cold shot arrives middle of the week and as it departs another low rides up to our west, just as another strong cold shot pushes in behind it.

All the models have cycled through showing a decent snow to ice, then down to mostly ice to rain events. Friday- Sunday Time Frame

OK Smart guy, what will happen?

The Problems

Timing of the storm-- The sooner the precipitation gets here, the more cold air in place and the better chance for snow before ice and rain.

Models often underestimate the strenth of cold arctic air so, as the event gets closer what seems like a rather benign pre dawn ice to rain event Saturday could end up a little more disruptive.  I will spare you the maps, but some of the data has the freeze line way down into North Carolina and then moves it in 6 hours to north of Lynchburg. This won't be a typical CAD(Cold Air Damming) but once you get north of the Staunton/James river areas- the tempature loves to hoover at 32 for hours in these events.
Possible Outcomes for our area (Lynchburg, Roanoke, Blacksburg, Danville)
Danville is always another world in CAD events and I don't expect significant problems.
Our norther regions is another world...

Most likely- Coating to an inch of sleet and snow, some freezing rain ending as rain.  Temps warm enough to not make it a HARD shopping day Saturday.
Snow/sleet quickly to ice ending as rain.

Possible: Snow/Sleet 1-2 inches- Freezing rain dominates and temps don't get above freezing until after the system clears later Saturday.

Not totally written off yet: Snow/Sleet of 2 or more inches that ends as freezing rain. Temps remain colder and much of the day would be well spent at home, off the roads.

I'd venture to say pretty good chance we get a winter weather advisory Friday night into Saturday AM.

Depending on timing, another glancing blow of ice and snow possible Monday as the cold air rushes back in.

Big Warm up Christmas Week! Winter makes its return Middle of January??