If you wanted ONE more snow event.. read this blog!

At noon yesterday, we about bottomed out with the no snow camp. Outside the GFS, the other models were moving the one piece to our north with snow, the other south with rain and showing very little precipitation in our region.

We may have a true trend emerging. The NAM, which showed the north trend in the January event and the first to show heavier totals on the Valentines day event, doesn't want it to snow. The Canadian is also not for this storm, so these are in the no snow camp. However, the Euro model shows 2-3 inches and the MIDNIGHT run of the GFS looked better and now 6z run is even more intense.

Initial thoughts- I think a 1-3, 2-4 type event is on tap.It's not crazy to say this becomes a 3/6 4/8 type event based on trends today.  Flurries break out Thursday afternoon and then Late evening overnight, steadier accumulating snow develops until Friday AM. Thursday afternoon will have a rain/snow mix, some rain could mix in when the precipitation slows down AND it could end as drizzle. Martinsville to Danville we see a much rainer solution, but may end as a burst of snow that could get them in range of our target snowfall.

Greatest fear- Models trend to a more snowier solution, only to be a smidge too warm and then we get mostly rain. Especially east of the Blue Ridge (Lynchburg) Elevation will have a role in this event. 

WHY ARE YOU LEANING GFS/EURO- the trend has been for a stronger solution and the model trends are always more north.

6z GFS model run..

Total liquid falling- about .5 or .6 , expect much more to our south and east. You can see that this storm is blowing up RIGHT near our area.  Now, the bad assumption is to 

Snowfall totals from Wxbell

Surface temps will be near 40 when the snow/rain starts Thursday afternoon and evening. When the precipitation is heaviest, it will be right near freezing. 

Even if surface temps are OK, we are already on the borderline with temps aloft..


At 7pm Thursday, temps aloft are cold enough all the way down into NC, our battle is at the Surface

At 1 am Friday, Temps aloft have surged and mostly rain is falling just south of Lynchburg.

 at 7 am, you see cold air working back in from the west.  My assumption is that at 1AM, that warmth is still moving north, but likely slowed and then at 7 Am MOST places are turning back to snow. 

For you snow haters-- Look, if this comes to fruition, most will be melted by late Friday. 

There is a lot to be resolved still, but I think a general 1-3/2-4 event is on tap. We've got some wiggle room either way for this to be a bit more or next to nothing. 

As usual, will FB/Tweet out updated information as the event unfolds today. Keep up with the ad clicks! I do appreciate it! .