Rain, Ice then snow-- Tricky forecast on the way. School days appear to be a 2fer-- Thursday and Friday off for most schools.

Tricky forecast on the way with ANOTHER winter event a virtual lock. The difference is we could escape with a minor inch or two of sleet and snow or could end up with 4-5 inches.

It's a simple set up, where an arctic cold front is pushing in the same time a HUGE slug of moisture is moving in. The exact time the the front gets in, and then the time it takes for the sleet to mix with snow will determine what happens.

Timing is Everything.

If anything the trend has been to nudge this more south, as all data yesterday moved that direction. There has been many systems where they nudge close enough to keep us in the game, and then as the event unfolds, the snow/sleet line ends up 50 miles north of modeled. This is HUGE because as modeled now-- The sleet line gets to Roanoke/Lynchburg before Sun up tomorrow, while it doesn't reach Danville until noon. So, sleet line moving about 10 miles an hour?? Further, after that we are waiting for the entire column of air to cool enough to flip it to all snow. What would be 6 inches of snow, could end up being just 1.5 inches of sleet. (Snow falls at a 10-1 ratio, while sleet is 3-1 at best)

Here is a map of my thoughts as of now-- In General, along 460 from Blacksburg to Roanoke to Lynchburg.  1-2 inches of sleet, 1-2 inches of snow 2-4 inches total. Change over rain to sleet 5-7 AM, Chang from sleet to snow 12-2 PM. It all ends by dinner time.

Southside- Martinsville to Danville 1-2 inches total sleet snow. Sleet mixes Late morning/early afternoon, ending as snow.

We have no wiggle room, meaning if this is off by 30 miles south, we only get an inch or two. Conversely, if the model data is off 30 miles to the north we could be looking at 6-7 inches. A fluid situation like will require some game time updates, so follow me on FB or Twitter for updates.