Winter 2014-- 1-2 degrees below normal, with snowfall 15% to 50% above normal.
Relative to normal, the coldest and snowiest period looks to be Mid January to Mid February.
1-2 degrees isn't much I'd not be shocked if that 30 day stretch I mentioned is a -4 to 5. I think the we get a stretch where 2-3 storms beat us up pretty good in a 10 day period and snow falls on top of a snow pack during that stretch.
Normal snowfall with my rage next
Blacksburg 23 - 30-35 inches this winter
Danville 12 inches 15-20 this winter
Lynchburg 17 inches 20-25 inches
Roanoke 19 inches 25-30 inches.
December likely the mildest of the 3 winter months, but an event is always possible. Once the pattern breaks down from mid to late Feb to early March, it would be be simply over.
Factors-
El Nino-- We are in a low end el nino, especially based on a scale called the MEI. This indicates somewhat of a more active sub tropical get, but not too much that would be too warm.
PDO
Positive phase. It's interesting that long term negative phases are better for a cooler globe, but often a spike near the winter to a positive in a short term aspect is good for our region. The 60's saw this common with a -PDO pattern, but a few good winters spiked towards positive.
Eurasian snow cover
Off the charts- This has an incredible strong correlation to negative phase of Arctic oscillation, which is good for our region
QBO- winds way up in the sky. When bottomed out, and beginning to turn slowly towards negative has a connection to high latitude blocking.
The one negative I see is sun spots are active now but its weighted towards colder and snowier.
Can the winter end up with MORE snow--
Sure. Anything is possible. If we get a decent snow or two in December before the good pattern sets up that's a big tell. Also, if the Arctic Oscillation falls off the chart, it tends to replicate it self. So, if we see a -4 in December or early Jan, we will have enough time to cycle back to ANOTHER steep fall.
Could we end up with less snow? Sure-- A met out of North Carolina named Allen Huffman released his outlook and out of the "analog" or matching years... the least snowiest was 1958-59 had 12 inches. So, the bottom may be somewhere around 10 inches and the snowiest years that had some match was upward of 40 inches in LYH. My range is where I think we fall based on current factors but clearly there are factors that can be hard to gauge.
If I placed odds-- 60% my range is good, 10% chance we get higher, 30% chance we get lower than I forecasted.
My greatest strength is spotting legit events and discussing them maybe a few days before you may hear about them from other media sources, so be vigilant in checking my blog. When it comes to snow, if I'm not talking about it I'm not to jazzed about it. When I'm fired up, you will know and I will update. Today's event unfolded about how I expected-- not a big deal around here, hence no updates. Some snow in Upstate NC on Nov 1 is a big deal in that area. Chilly weekend on tap with
a reminder that winter is just a stones throw away.
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