I like to get an early jump on snow and ice storms but I was travelling and had only my ipad. This storm has been on the "radar" a few days and like most clippers, the exact track and amounts change. Often, you need to see the "whites" of it's eyes before you know how it's going to truly unfold.
**as I'm typing this NWS has gone Winter Storm Watch for everyone north of the Staunton River.. (AKA, Altavista to Blackburg North.**
Clipper diggs in, reforms just to our south and we get our first snow of the year. (Accumulation snow, that is)
5 thoughts on this event..
1. My original post, had I done it last night was going to be 1-3 inches, with potential for up to 5.
2. Clippers can be tricky with snow ratio. Normal is at 10-1 (inch of rain makes 10 of snow, but it's actually closer to 11-1) Clippers can be 15 or 20-1. So, if we get the .3 shown on models, 5 inches is likely.
3. The further north and east you are, the better you will do.
4. Snow starts between 7-9 am west and 8-10 east. It's all done by 3-4 pm.
5. Wednesday will be a GREAT winter day with temps in the 20's, great sun and snow cover.
Now, the NWS sets the benchmark, but I'm not convinced 3-5 yet. I'm going to move up to the 2-4 range and watch. The GFS model is low guy with .2 liquid and the ECMWF has closer to .3. A short term model called the NAM is like a drunk uncle and shows closer to .5, but has drifted north a bit.
Expect schools to be out Tuesday and Wednesday.
DC area will see 3-6 and Wilmington DE and Philly maybe that or even 4-8.
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