Saturday, February 16, 2013

Could be a snowy day in parts of our area??

Part one of the storm has come and gone with LITTLE rain. I know LYH airport officialy had a Trace of rain. At some point in the evening I had some drizzle, but it never amounted to much. Further, a friend shot me an overnight text and reported some light snow in the 2-3 AM time frame. (Yeah, people do those nice things for me because of this hobby)

Round two is getting fired up. 

Model review-

NAM- Has a strong band that pushes up from the SE to the NW somewhere between lets say Altavista and Amherst. In that band, a few inches fall. Outside of it, coating to an inch. The NAM is a short term model-- may have an edge here. 

GFS- has a general 1-2 inch snowfall from lets say LYH and DAN east. 

Super short term models RAP and HRRR. These update hourly.

RAP- really over emphasizes that big band and dumps up to 5 inches for those under it. Outside it, coating to an inch.Shows it much closer to LYH in the same general area. 

HRRR- Has a heavier area, but it's further east-- does NOT really get the greater LYH area. 


My thoughts-- I think Further east has the best shot of anything over an inch. LYH may see a coating. Roanoke maybe flurries. South Boston to Just west of Richmond may see 1-3

Will use Twitter and FB to update from here but I'm taking my boys to the Monster Truck show this afternoon, so I'll be cut off for a while. :) If it starts to snow good, flip on radar-- that may be your best bet. 

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