Ice event and the next 10 days.

Tricky forecast for Lynchburg, VA- Roanoke, a little easier but still tricky. Few degrees either way make a BIG difference.

The Good:
We need the rain and will get quite a bit. Between an inch and a inch and a half most regions.
Ice impact-- While we could see some ice build up on the trees in places that get freezing rain, but the rain will come down heavy so it won't have a chance to freeze as much + temps won't be that cold.

The Bad:
If I were king of the world, I'd of expanded advisories a county south and east of Lynchburg to include Campbell and Appomattox. It may not materialize, but considering the holiday, people heading to work-- if there is marginal temps a bridge or overpass is icy-- bad situation.

The Data:
Interesting trends as far as temps-- we spiked early and between the cloud cover later in the day and a little colder air dipping in from the north, we went from 53 to 43 in a couple hours. Temps will hover in the upper 30's until the rain starts. There is some dry air, especially between 6 and 10k feet. This will cool the atmosphere from the mid levels down mix the rain with sleet for a time between lets say 5 am and 10 am tomorrow. The surface temp will slowly drop as well and will stop in Lynchburg somewhere between 31 and 34) Obviously, getting below 32 is a big deal. Elevations above 1500 feet or so will get much more freezing rain. Just outside Roanoke in the elevations above 1200 feet should see a decent amount of ice accrual as well.

The issue with the sleet is this-- ideally, you want air colder than -3 or -4 C for 4-5 thousand feet for sleet. This is more like -2 or -3 for 3 thousand feet as modeled. So, this is marginal for sleet. However, some sleet will fall. I can see the ground getting coated for a period tomorrow between 7-9 am .

Biggest thing-- be careful in the am. Check the weather, warn your friend to check. A few degrees-- better safe than sorry.

The Future:
Saturday has a possible event on tap. AS of now, looks like a risk of a moderate snow event of maybe 2-4 inches. Still need to shift over the data. Part of the deal will be what happens with our first storm and where that ends up.

Jan 2-3 has another "potential event". If you track some of my blogs, I talk about the the "PNA" or ridging in the west. Seems like we MAY have some cold air and SOME chance of of a decent storm. I like the potential for 7 days out.