Warm the first couple days, then cold leftovers.
Thanksgiving and Black Friday will be NICE days-- 60 or so most areas, give or take a few degrees, MAYBE 65 on Friday.
Strong cold front passes late Friday evening and we DRASTICALLY cool off Saturday. 40-45 for a high will be the norm with some upslope snows in the Mountains for those travelling west and north.
November will end up colder than normal-- we are running a -4 in LYH and w couple warmer days won't shave much off and then we go back into the "cooler".
What does the crystal ball say about December?
Cold air has been building up in Canada nicely. I often blog about high latitude blocking. We've had SOME blocking, but not a ton in November and we are WELL below normal. There are SOME signs of some blocking developing, some could be strong. The issue is WHERE the block sets up. A key issue in my outlook talked about the problems with the pacific and regarding the pdo and how that COULD lead to less blocking out west. In this case, if we don't get that blocking the strongest of the cold will be in the mid west and then into the NORTHEAST up near Boston and that region.
However, whenever there is arctic air in the northern tier, all we need is a day or so of the a trigger to pull down colder air and a properly timed storm. Those TEND to be more ice events, so we are on the lookout. The first 15 days or so of December have potential for cold, snow and ice, but this is not a lock.
Ironically, the stratosphere has NOT been favorable for cold up to this point. So, if we get a cold period without cooperation and then a boost later on, we COULD be looking at a pretty harsh winter. (Conjecture, not a forecast)
Hope all enjoy a great Thanksgiving- 2012 has been a great year for me and hope the same for you and your friends and family.
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