The most hyped FB blizzard of all time is on the way. :)
Model data has trended nice for a dusting to an inch, maybe 2 in the favored spots Saturday AM. Will watch because one trend has been to make storms a little wetter as they approach. Another piece of energy could bring flurries and snowshowers later Sunday as well, but I think that event is confined to those north of 64 in Charlottesville and Staunton North.
Signals are flying for a possible winter event mid week. No idea to what exactly will happen but snow, ice and rain possible mid week. This has "potential" to be our best event of the year.
Full updated later.
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Saturday, February 1, 2014
1, a little 2, a little 3 a mess.
We had mentioned 3 possible events.
Event 1 Monday.
Big rainmaker here, with a POSSIBLE end as sleet and snow. My hunch is the models trend a little north and it's a decent snow Around the Mason Dixon line, away from the coast. If the cold air was 12 hours quicker, this would be a NICE event, but not this time.
Event 2-
I think we start as a little sleet and freezing rain- timing may be ideal where it's overnight and all rain by am. (Except the one person who doesn't listen to the weather and flips their car)
Event 3- Of course, the snow maps on FB event.
Mentioned it had potential to be an ice event and we could be moving towards that. Great cold air in place as the event starts, just nothing to hold it in place.
Option one- Decent snow event that ends as a bad ice storm. This would be Friday night into Saturday.
Some brings the whole piece of energy at once and it's a big storm that cuts to our west, but reforms to our SE. Another option is a smaller event followed by a bigger one. I'm on the option 1. Think it's a big ticket event, that will have ICE as far as NE Georgia next weekend. We should get some front end snow, just not not sure if it's an inch or two or more. Also, could be a decent sleet storm.
Option two.
Event A. A minor snow and ice event. Friday Night- Saturday
Event B Bigger Snow Event Sunday
Event 1 Monday.
Big rainmaker here, with a POSSIBLE end as sleet and snow. My hunch is the models trend a little north and it's a decent snow Around the Mason Dixon line, away from the coast. If the cold air was 12 hours quicker, this would be a NICE event, but not this time.
Event 2-
I think we start as a little sleet and freezing rain- timing may be ideal where it's overnight and all rain by am. (Except the one person who doesn't listen to the weather and flips their car)
Event 3- Of course, the snow maps on FB event.
Mentioned it had potential to be an ice event and we could be moving towards that. Great cold air in place as the event starts, just nothing to hold it in place.
Option one- Decent snow event that ends as a bad ice storm. This would be Friday night into Saturday.
Some brings the whole piece of energy at once and it's a big storm that cuts to our west, but reforms to our SE. Another option is a smaller event followed by a bigger one. I'm on the option 1. Think it's a big ticket event, that will have ICE as far as NE Georgia next weekend. We should get some front end snow, just not not sure if it's an inch or two or more. Also, could be a decent sleet storm.
Option two.
Event A. A minor snow and ice event. Friday Night- Saturday
Event B Bigger Snow Event Sunday
Thursday, January 30, 2014
1-2-3, Snow
Quick update:
The extreme cold will abate the next two days after 11 days so far this month of DOUBLE DIGIT DEPARTURES. (Meaning that our temp has been 10 below normal 11 days this month and today will be the 12th)
We are watching 3 storms.
Storm one cuts WELL to our west and is no threat for winter weather. Outside shot a little piece swings through Monday and gives a little snow, but I'm not on that train yet.
Storm 2: Tuesday- Wednesday Cuts to our west and a secondary low forms near VA Beach. We start as sleet and freezing rain and end as rain. I think it's a tricky event with cold air, and some models kicking out a decent amount of sleet with it. (inch of sleet is like 3-4 inches of snow) Freezing rain after this cold snap COULD be a pain.
Storm 3: I'm sure many have seen a couple insane maps of 1-3 feet up and down the east coast back into the plans. That's a cumulative map of the next 10 days, but we do have a legit risk of an impressive event. Storm 2 is followed by an arctic Front that goes well to our south and links up with some energy on the sub tropical jet. Great potential for a BIG winter event.
This is 10 days out, and it's never a lock. With that, the model consistency has been rather impressive. Often, but not all the time the models see the big ones FAR away. Will update because this has the potential to be an impressive ice and snow event. I won't post a computer generated map, but the Euro Model has been showing a foot or more across our region with this event. ** Great potential**
Follow me on FB or Twitter (Keith Huffman or LynchburgWx)
The extreme cold will abate the next two days after 11 days so far this month of DOUBLE DIGIT DEPARTURES. (Meaning that our temp has been 10 below normal 11 days this month and today will be the 12th)
We are watching 3 storms.
Storm one cuts WELL to our west and is no threat for winter weather. Outside shot a little piece swings through Monday and gives a little snow, but I'm not on that train yet.
Storm 2: Tuesday- Wednesday Cuts to our west and a secondary low forms near VA Beach. We start as sleet and freezing rain and end as rain. I think it's a tricky event with cold air, and some models kicking out a decent amount of sleet with it. (inch of sleet is like 3-4 inches of snow) Freezing rain after this cold snap COULD be a pain.
Storm 3: I'm sure many have seen a couple insane maps of 1-3 feet up and down the east coast back into the plans. That's a cumulative map of the next 10 days, but we do have a legit risk of an impressive event. Storm 2 is followed by an arctic Front that goes well to our south and links up with some energy on the sub tropical jet. Great potential for a BIG winter event.
This is 10 days out, and it's never a lock. With that, the model consistency has been rather impressive. Often, but not all the time the models see the big ones FAR away. Will update because this has the potential to be an impressive ice and snow event. I won't post a computer generated map, but the Euro Model has been showing a foot or more across our region with this event. ** Great potential**
Follow me on FB or Twitter (Keith Huffman or LynchburgWx)
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Snow update
Hope you follow me on FB because I've been updating thoughts on this.
Models have been all moving around enough where it has been a challenge.
Would not be shocked if we get 2-3 inches, would not be shocked if get NOTHING. But, you have to make a call, right??
Lynchburg, Coating to 2 inches.
Danville to 1-3 inches.
Roanoke Coating to inch.
BIG event Hampton Roads, VA Beach area.
Snow is actually streaking well out ahead of our low and is overhead, but it will take HOURS and HOURS to reach the ground because it's very dry and once it starts, the clock starts running for it be pushed to our east. If it starts earlier, we may get a little more, if it is delayed we could end up with nothing. Historic ice and snows Coastal NC down to GA.
We get a break for a few days and then pattern COULD get active with cold temps, just not THIS cold. I have a "fear" of a major ice storm due to the overall pattern.
Models have been all moving around enough where it has been a challenge.
Would not be shocked if we get 2-3 inches, would not be shocked if get NOTHING. But, you have to make a call, right??
Lynchburg, Coating to 2 inches.
Danville to 1-3 inches.
Roanoke Coating to inch.
BIG event Hampton Roads, VA Beach area.
Snow is actually streaking well out ahead of our low and is overhead, but it will take HOURS and HOURS to reach the ground because it's very dry and once it starts, the clock starts running for it be pushed to our east. If it starts earlier, we may get a little more, if it is delayed we could end up with nothing. Historic ice and snows Coastal NC down to GA.
We get a break for a few days and then pattern COULD get active with cold temps, just not THIS cold. I have a "fear" of a major ice storm due to the overall pattern.
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Shiver Me Timbers
Yesterdays snow fall was a disaster for any forecaster. It ended up WAY north, and really anything south of DC and east of the BR struggled to get a decent event. Hopefully, I conveyed that well in my thoughts here. I was glad most places pulled out an inch, but I know folks on Boonsboro who did not, and once again we had more snow here than my kids when they are with their Mom. (It's happened 3x in the past 12 months)
I live on Timberlake and we had decent snow band between 9 and 9:30-- it's when half of our 1.5 inches fell.
The forecast over the next week is Cold and Colder. You may need 2 pair of gloves and yes, please share them. Temps may not get above freezing till Saturday and then fall under again for 3-4 more days.
Let's be honest, cold is boring. I walked to my car tonight to find a book my son wanted me to read him and thought how bad it would be homeless in this cold. While that means nothing to my blog, this will be a "historic" cold outbreak when all is said and done. But, if we don't score much more snow-- does it really matter?
Snow chance?
We will have 2-3 more pulses of energy that approach BEFORE late next week. I think all three whiff to our north, but all three COULD bring a few flurries or snow showers. If we could get any of these pushed to our south, we could swing another coating to an inch but that doesn't seem likely at this time.
Some data has indicated that LATE next week-- Thursday to Saturday Time frame (Jan 30-Feb 1) Time frame. Anything that's 10 days out is a guessing game of sorts, but sometimes the best time to look for an event is transition-- like yesterdays was leading into a cold snap or late next week, leading OUT of a colder pattern. Either one has issues with precipitation type as cold air is either coming or going.
Remember I'm on Twitter or FB for updates that I don't do on here and if you click an add I'll eventually get a $100 check from google. I'm about half way there!
Monday, January 20, 2014
Last second thoughts
First, please post me your obs, pics et al on FB and Twitter tomorrow. I really do enjoy them.
I wish we had more clarity. I'm still sticking with my call of 1-3 inches from Roanoke to Lynchburg, with 3-4 just north through Northern Amherst County.
I'm stil shocked the NWS has stuck with it's 4-6 call for 460 north. Much smarted and educated mets there, but the data, outside the GFS/ SREF has not supported that call.
Couple fears-
NAM and RGEM, 2 short term models are very dry, like .05 to .10 total liquid. This would be coating to an inch and it can't be ignored.
Short term models called RAP and HRRR seem to support this, if not WORSE. However, they are known for being north at this range.
GFS model is like old consistent friend. It won't ever go crazy either ways, has some flaws but you can work around the. It has been consistent with 2-4 inches.
The sooner the snow starts, the more we will get. (Brilliant) That's because the precipitation will move east and slow at some point, if that doesn't reach your region by mid to late morning, you may have a long wait.
Could be one burst in AM, lull with ligher stuff and one more nice burst mid to late afternoon.
Final call:
1-3 ROA to LYH
2-5 NRV-MT Emire up 81. Once you get up to Staunton, those numbers Double
Coating to 2 inches south of Stauton River, down to NC state line.
Guessing for exact cities.
Blacksburg 3.3
Roanoke 2.3
LYH 2.5
Danville- .5 (as in half inch)
I wish we had more clarity. I'm still sticking with my call of 1-3 inches from Roanoke to Lynchburg, with 3-4 just north through Northern Amherst County.
I'm stil shocked the NWS has stuck with it's 4-6 call for 460 north. Much smarted and educated mets there, but the data, outside the GFS/ SREF has not supported that call.
Couple fears-
NAM and RGEM, 2 short term models are very dry, like .05 to .10 total liquid. This would be coating to an inch and it can't be ignored.
Short term models called RAP and HRRR seem to support this, if not WORSE. However, they are known for being north at this range.
GFS model is like old consistent friend. It won't ever go crazy either ways, has some flaws but you can work around the. It has been consistent with 2-4 inches.
The sooner the snow starts, the more we will get. (Brilliant) That's because the precipitation will move east and slow at some point, if that doesn't reach your region by mid to late morning, you may have a long wait.
Could be one burst in AM, lull with ligher stuff and one more nice burst mid to late afternoon.
Final call:
1-3 ROA to LYH
2-5 NRV-MT Emire up 81. Once you get up to Staunton, those numbers Double
Coating to 2 inches south of Stauton River, down to NC state line.
Guessing for exact cities.
Blacksburg 3.3
Roanoke 2.3
LYH 2.5
Danville- .5 (as in half inch)
Afternoon Update for Tuesday snow
Noon model data is in--
Not great for Lynchburg Snow, Roanoke snow and reigon wide snow. It will snow, but likely a 1-3 inch event.
Not as robust if you are a snow fan. Average liquid is maybe .15 to .20 across the board and the trend has been moving the heaviest amounts to the north. A classic mistake is to assume that northern trend is DONE. These northern stream systems are classic for teasing those to the south only to end up much more north of where they were modeled.
When you don't get the heavier snow, in simple terms you also don't get the best snow growth, so the ratio issues I discussed are not as big of a factor.
As stated, I was a bit shocked NWS went Winter Storm watch-- this is a tricky system, but I don't see a likelihood of 4+ inches, If anything I wish I had held fast to my 1-3 thoughts.
Going with my original thought-- 1-3 for Roanoke to Lynchburg
2-4 NRV north along and up 81 (Excluding Roanoke)
Coating to an inch down to NC state line.
20% Chance it trends more north and we get only flurries/snow showers that make a dusting.
65% chance we end up in my current calls.
15% chance we exceed that 1-3 event.
Not great for Lynchburg Snow, Roanoke snow and reigon wide snow. It will snow, but likely a 1-3 inch event.
Not as robust if you are a snow fan. Average liquid is maybe .15 to .20 across the board and the trend has been moving the heaviest amounts to the north. A classic mistake is to assume that northern trend is DONE. These northern stream systems are classic for teasing those to the south only to end up much more north of where they were modeled.
When you don't get the heavier snow, in simple terms you also don't get the best snow growth, so the ratio issues I discussed are not as big of a factor.
As stated, I was a bit shocked NWS went Winter Storm watch-- this is a tricky system, but I don't see a likelihood of 4+ inches, If anything I wish I had held fast to my 1-3 thoughts.
Going with my original thought-- 1-3 for Roanoke to Lynchburg
2-4 NRV north along and up 81 (Excluding Roanoke)
Coating to an inch down to NC state line.
20% Chance it trends more north and we get only flurries/snow showers that make a dusting.
65% chance we end up in my current calls.
15% chance we exceed that 1-3 event.
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